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Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $25,707M, up 2% year over year; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.66 and non-GAAP diluted EPS was $0.73, with GAAP gross margin at 16.3% and operating margin at 6.2% .
  • Energy storage deployments hit a record 11.0 GWh in Q4, driving record Energy gross profit; cash, cash equivalents and investments ended at $36,563M (+$2.9B sequentially) on positive free cash flow .
  • Automotive margins compressed quarter over quarter on lower ASPs and the absence of Q3 FSD revenue recognition; average COGS per vehicle fell to an all-time low under ~$35,000, partially offsetting pricing pressure .
  • Management flagged near-term margin and output headwinds from a global Model Y changeover (lost production weeks) but guided to vehicle business growth returning in 2025, “more affordable” models beginning production in H1 2025, at least 50% YoY growth in energy storage deployments in 2025, and an initial launch of unsupervised FSD ride-hailing in Austin in June 2025, viewed as key stock catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record quarter for both vehicle deliveries (495,570) and energy storage deployments (11.0 GWh); Energy achieved record gross profit and Shanghai Megafactory construction completed to begin ramp in Q1 2025 .
  • Cost execution: average COGS per vehicle fell to an all-time low under ~$35,000, driven largely by raw material cost improvements, while cash and investments increased by $7.5B in 2024 to $36.6B .
  • AI and technology progress: deployed “Cortex,” a ~50k H100 training cluster in Texas enabling FSD V13; management: “We’re going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June” .

What Went Wrong

  • Automotive margin pressure: Q4 GAAP gross margin fell to 16.3% (from 19.8% in Q3) and operating margin to 6.2%, primarily on reduced ASPs; CFO noted Q4 margin decline vs Q3 given the Q3 FSD feature revenue recognition .
  • Production YoY decline: total vehicle production was 459,445 (-7% YoY), with impact to fixed cost absorption; global vehicle inventory days of supply improved but highlights throughput constraints .
  • OpEx rising on AI/R&D: Operating expenses increased YoY; CFO expects OpEx to increase further in 2025 to support AI initiatives; Q4 net income included ~$0.6B mark-to-market benefit from bitcoin under new digital assets accounting .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)25,167 25,182 25,707
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)2.27 0.62 0.66
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)0.71 0.72 0.73
GAAP Gross Margin (%)17.6% 19.8% 16.3%
Operating Margin (%)8.2% 10.8% 6.2%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)3,953 4,665 4,922

Segment revenue breakdown:

Revenue Segment ($USD Millions)Q4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Automotive Sales20,630 18,831 18,659
Automotive Regulatory Credits433 739 692
Automotive Leasing500 446 447
Energy Generation & Storage1,438 2,376 3,061
Services & Other2,166 2,544 2,848

KPIs and operational metrics:

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Total Deliveries (Units)484,507 462,890 495,570
Model 3/Y Deliveries (Units)461,538 439,975 471,930
Other Models Deliveries (Units)22,969 22,915 23,640
Storage Deployed (GWh)3.2 6.9 11.0
Supercharger Stations5,952 6,706 6,975
Supercharger Connectors54,892 62,421 65,495

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Vehicle Deliveries Growth2025Not explicitly quantified; 2024 “slight growth” expected “Vehicle business to return to growth in 2025” New clarity for 2025
Energy Storage Deployments (YoY)20252024 expected to more than double YoY Grow at least 50% YoY New 2025 target
More Affordable Models SOPH1 2025On track H1 2025 On track H1 2025 Maintained
Semi Factory Timing2025–2026Begin production by end of 2025 First builds late 2025; ramp early 2026 Maintained/clarified
Cybercab (Robotaxi) Volume Production2026Volume production in 2026 (strategic plan) Volume production planned for 2026 Maintained
Unsupervised FSD Launch (Paid Service)2025Driverless paid rides next year (high level) Austin launch targeted for June 2025 Clarified timeline
OpEx Direction2025N/AOpEx expected to increase to support growth initiatives New
CapEx Direction20252024 CapEx >$11B 2025 CapEx expected flat YoY New

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI/FSD ProgressV12.5, 5x parameters; merge highway/city stacks; ride-hailing pilots planned in TX/CA next year Cortex ~50k H100 deployed; V13 improvements; plan Austin unsupervised FSD in June 2025 Accelerating execution, clearer timelines
Supply Chain/TariffsEurope/China tariff adjustments; localization strategy Tariffs “very likely” to impact profitability; ongoing localization with multi-region parts reliance Heightened risk management
Product PerformanceEnergy storage record (9.4 GWh); Cybertruck best-selling EV pickup in Q2 Record Energy deployments (11.0 GWh); New Model Y launch across all factories; China record deliveries Energy growth strong; global Model Y refresh
Regional TrendsShanghai exports; Berlin RHD ramp; Cybercab unveil China: record deliveries; Europe: Model Y top-selling across multiple countries; Philippines sales launch Broader geographic strength
Regulatory/LegalEU approvals for supervised FSD targeted; U.S. FMVSS context Aim for unsupervised FSD paid service in Austin June 2025; broader U.S. rollout by end of 2025 subject to safety Regulatory engagement intensifying
R&D/CapEx>$11B 2024 CapEx; GPU cluster build-out in TX ~$5B cumulative AI-related CapEx to date; 2025 CapEx flat YoY; OpEx to increase Investment focused, disciplined scaling

Management Commentary

  • Elon Musk: “We’re going to be launching unsupervised full self-driving as a paid service in Austin in June” .
  • CFO Vaibhav Taneja: “Our journey on cost reduction continues, and we were able to get our overall cost per car down below $35,000” .
  • Update Deck: “Q4 was a record quarter for both vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments… COGS per vehicle reached its lowest level ever at <$35,000” .
  • Elon Musk on Energy: Stationary storage demand “will become incredibly important” with multiple new factories, including Shanghai beginning ramp in Q1 .
  • Lars Moravy on Semi: “First builds…will come late this year in 2025 and begin ramping early in 2026” .

Q&A Highlights

  • FSD licensing interest from major OEMs; Tesla will entertain only high-volume partners after unsupervised FSD works broadly in the U.S. .
  • Near-term constraint is battery production; executive team focused on increasing total GWh output; Q1 output impacted by Model Y retooling .
  • Tariff uncertainty likely to impact profitability; continued push to localize globally .
  • Digital assets accounting change yielded ~$0.6B mark-to-market benefit in Q4 other income; recurring mark-to-market adjustments expected going forward .
  • Clarification on rollout: initial unsupervised fleet operations in Austin under Tesla control before enabling customer cars into the network .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable due to data access limits during retrieval; as a result, we cannot present beats/misses versus consensus at this time. Values would ordinarily be sourced from S&P Global and compared to reported results (note: unavailable).

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Energy momentum: record 11.0 GWh deployments in Q4 and guidance for ≥50% YoY growth in 2025 suggest sustained profit mix shift toward Energy; watch Shanghai Megafactory ramp in Q1 .
  • Margin dynamics: automotive margin compressed on lower ASPs but structural COGS per vehicle continues to improve; expect short-term pressure from global Model Y changeover (lost weeks) before stabilization .
  • FSD catalysts: Austin unsupervised paid service targeted for June 2025 with broader U.S. rollout by year-end; increased attach rates are likely as capability improves and awareness rises .
  • Capital intensity: AI-related CapEx (~$5B cumulative) is targeted; 2025 CapEx flat YoY with OpEx growth to support AI—disciplined but continuing investment in compute and software .
  • Liquidity and cash generation: $36.6B cash/investments exiting Q4 and positive free cash flow in Q4 ($2.031B) provide flexibility through macro and ramp cycles .
  • Execution focus: battery supply remains a key constraint; Semi builds late 2025 and Cybercab volume production in 2026 anchor medium-term manufacturing roadmap .
  • Trading implications: near-term headwinds (Model Y transition, tariffs) may weigh on margins/output; medium-term narrative is driven by unsupervised FSD commercialization, Energy growth, and affordable models timing—monitor regulatory milestones and AI/software KPIs .